PROJECTION

A forecast or prediction of the future events in a fishery (in terms of stock size, landings, etc.) elaborated with the help of a more or less complex (mathematical) model believed to faithfully represent the mechanisms in a stock and a fishery. It is usually assumed that if the model can reproduce accurately the past events, it can to predict the future to some extent (assuming that the effect of all non-modeled parameters of the system, e.g. medium to long-term environment trends) will be negligible.