MARGINAL EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT

in economics, expected rates of return on investment as additional units of investment are made under specified conditions and over a stated period of time. A comparison of these rates with the going rate of interest may be used to indicate the profitability of investment. The rate of return is computed as the rate at which the expected stream of future earnings from an investment project must be discounted to make their present value equal to the cost of the project. As the quantity of investment increases, the rates of return from it may be expected to decrease because the most profitable projects are undertaken first. Additions to investment will consist of projects with progressively lower rates of return. Logically, investment would be undertaken as long as the marginal efficiency of each additional investment exceeded the interest rate. If the interest rate were higher, investment would be unprofitable because the cost of borrowing the necessary funds would exceed the returns on the investment. Even if it were unnecessary to borrow funds for the investment, more profit could be made by lending out the available funds at the going rate of interest. The British economist J.M. Keynes used this concept, but a different term (the marginal efficiency of capital), in arguing the importance of profit expectations rather than interest rates as determinants of the level of investment. Statistical studies since the 1930s have tended to reinforce the idea that interest rates play a small role in investment decisions.