YEAR IN REVIEW 1997: TRANSPORTATION

AVIATION The economic recovery of the world airline industry from its worst-ever period of losses continued, with the 250-member International Air Transport Association (IATA), the airlines' trade organization, reporting a record net profit for 1995 of $5.2 billion, 4% of revenue, and forecasting a repeat performance for 1996. IATA airlines carried 1,107,000,000 passengers on scheduled services in 1995, up 3.8%, and 20.2 million metric tons of freight, up 6.7%. For 1996, increases of 7% and 5.9%, respectively, were predicted. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the UN aviation body, forecast a 6% growth in passenger numbers for 1996, 7% in 1997, and 6.5% in 1998, with airlines in the Asia-Pacific region continuing to have the highest rate of expansion. While the overall situation for civil aviation appeared to be positive, several factors continued to cast a cloud over the industry. Pierre Jeanniot, the director general of IATA, agreed that a third year of net profits would allow many airlines to expand their markets, issue stock, and borrow on favourable terms, but he warned that the profitability of the industry was not broadly based and that for many members it remained only "fragile." "Government policies toward our industry, which supports in all its facets at least 24 million jobs in the world economy, remain ambiguous as ever," Jeanniot said. "Desired for its wealth generation, but frequently discriminated against in the fields of taxation, user charges, environmental policy, and commercial regulation, the industry is becoming accustomed to fighting for every dollar of net revenue." Many governments were using the industry's partial recovery as an excuse for the continued imposition of "discriminatory, unjustified, and excessive" taxes on airlines. "Of all the problems facing the industry, unjustified taxation is the least likely to go away," Jeanniot stated. Airlines also worried about the rising cost of airport landing and parking charges, estimated at $6,120,000,000 for 1995, and air navigation charges, at $4.9 billion. These two together represented over 9% of the industry's total operating costs. Some carriers believed that in the rush to modernize, there was an overexpansion of expensive aviation infrastructure facilities--16 airport-development projects were under way in the Asia-Pacific region. Fuel charges, which in 1995 represented 10.9% of the industry's operating costs and which had remained relatively low since the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War, underwent a steady rise in 1996, reaching their highest levels in five years as 1996 ended. The causes were a stronger oil market and low levels of reserve stocks, and the result was that airlines had to raise fares. There were 19 total losses of Western-built jet airliners in 1995, with the deaths of 383 passengers and 39 crew. The loss rate had remained steady for 10 years, but the industry's safety record received a severe jolt in 1996, when there were three major crashes--to a Turkish-registered aircraft carrying German passengers, to ValuJet, and to Trans World. (See DISASTERS.) A general tightening of airline safety and security measures took place in the U.S. and in Europe. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rated seven countries in the Latin-American/Caribbean region Category 3, which meant that their carriers were banned from serving the U.S. In December the major U.S. airlines voluntarily agreed to install fire detectors in cargo compartments of airplanes that did not already have them. The ValuJet accident caused the FAA to focus on its regulation of the operating procedures of the new low-fare, no-frills airlines. During the year there were moves toward redrafting the industry's passenger injury liability system. This was based on the Warsaw Convention, signed in 1929, and limited compensation to an unrealistic $25,000. Led by IATA, many of the major airlines agreed to abolish liability limits altogether. The introduction of navigation via satellite in the Asia-Pacific region continued to help the industry make more efficient use of airspace, but in Europe a 7% increase in traffic put air traffic controllers under increasing strain, and an increase in flight delays caused concern. In Europe, also, EU airlines prepared for the final stage of liberalization, scheduled for spring 1997. With the former Aeroflot now split into more than 150 airlines, civil aviation in the former Soviet Union continued to experience severe problems, including unpaid bills, aging fleets, and lack of investment. A trend toward alliances between airlines accelerated, but governments became increasingly concerned about the monopolies that might result from such accords and about whether consumers were fully informed about the details, including which carrier actually operated a given flight and which was responsible in case of problems. (ARTHUR REED) FREIGHT AND PIPELINES Sea freight, as reflected by container movements, continued in 1996 to have the greatest activity in the Far East Pacific region. Hong Kong, with an estimated 13.2 million TEU (20-ft equivalent units) throughput for 1996, and Singapore remained the dominant ports, though both were experiencing a slowdown in growth. Hong Kong was linking itself to China's Pearl River delta ports, in readiness for the 1997 handover to China, while Singapore was planning to privatize much of its operations. Kao-hsiung, Taiwan, with 5 million TEU, was poised to become a transshipment centre for China, and other ports were expanding to accommodate trade in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand growth triangle. In Europe increased oil and TEU transshipments were taking place between Rotterdam, Neth., and Antwerp, Belg., Europe's largest "dry port" for containers. Barcelona, Spain, continued to press its claim as an intermodal port (involving more than one form of carrier). South America was seeking to develop its container ports, with the Caribbean ports expecting to attract transshipment business. The year saw the introduction of a 6,000-TEU container vessel. Further U.S. expansion of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) tags on intermodal freight trucks was a notable trend. Although total worldwide construction of pipelines declined slightly in 1996, at less than 22,550 km (14,000 mi), global prospects remained buoyant. Regulatory challenges in the U.S. accounted for the reduced activity. Canada planned to expand its Northern Border Pipeline to boost gas exports to the U.S. Privatization of energy industries was stimulating development in Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Venezuela. Colombia's Ocensa $240 million crude-oil line from the Cusiana and Cupiagua fields and the 1,200-km (750-mi) gas line from Argentina to Chile were typical examples. The Far East--notably Malaysia's Phase II gas field--ranked among the leading construction areas. The 918-km (570-mi), $400 million Gas Pipeline in Australia, 350 mm (14 in) in diameter, was completed during the year. India planned a national liquids grid costing $925 million over 10 years, while two projects in Russia--a 1,900-km (1,200-mi) gas line from Lake Tengiz to Grozny and a 32,000-km (20,000-mi) line from Yamburg to Kiev--were on the drawing board. In Europe the focus was on Spain and Portugal, with a further extension of the Maghreb-Europe gas line, and on the North Sea 854-km (534-mi) gas line from the 16/11 platform to Dunkirk. INTERCITY RAIL With investment in new facilities not increasing, intercity rail faced three issues in 1996: expansion of networks, increased use of high-speed trains, and private funding of these developments. Privatization schemes were progressing in many parts of the world. Although Germany and Japan were having second thoughts about it, the majority of nations were actively promoting privatization. They included Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Ecuador, Estonia, India, Malawi, Mexico, Pakistan, Sweden, and Switzerland. In Pakistan privatization included freight services, while in Chile it was seen as an aid to lowering pollution levels in Santiago. Europe, which pioneered high-speed rail, witnessed the construction of new 300-km/h (185-mph) lines in Germany, while Belgium also introduced new 300-km/h services between Brussels and Paris. In Asia Japanese high-speed rolling stock was to be sold to China, and South Korea was building a 425-km (265-mi) line. Major network expansions were reported in China, the most impressive being the Jing-Jiu Railway, which provided a link to Hong Kong. In South America a new line between So Paulo, Brazil, and Chile was being supported by Inter-American Development Bank funding, while the Scandinavian countries were planning a new triangle service linking Malm, Swed., Oslo, and Stockholm. Bangladesh planned to improve its rail services with a link using the newly opened bridge across the Jamuna (Brahmaputra) River. Colombia was to build a coal line linking isolated provinces to Lake Maracaibo, while Panama was considering an extension of its line outward from Panama City. Nicaragua was planning a 370-km (230-mi) train service that would connect deep seaports at Monkey Point to the Pacific Ocean. Notable technical developments included the introduction of tilting trains, which provide enhanced performance, in Switzerland and Italy and double-decker coaches and new high-speed trains in Germany. Efforts to reduce the cost of coach construction to 50% of existing levels were the focus of research of a European Union committee. In the U.S., research was continuing to develop a maglev (magnetically levitated) train that would not be too expensive to operate and maintain. On the environmental front both Swiss and Japanese railways took steps to reduce the impact of trackside noise levels. Safety issues were being scrutinized following a serious undersea fire in November in the Channel Tunnel (Eurotunnel) that interrupted passenger service for 16 days. ROADS AND TRAFFIC Global concerns for roads and traffic were focused on two areas in 1996: providing key network links and managing traffic congestion, particularly in urban areas. Constraints on government spending emphasized the need for funds from the private sector. From the U.S. to China, governments were seeking solutions to this problem, ranging from "innovative financing" to a build, own/operate, transfer framework aimed at attracting foreign investors. The 1.9-km (1 km = 0.62 mi) Piet Hein tunnel in Amsterdam and the 2-km Western Harbour Crossing in Hong Kong were completed. The latter was one of 10 interlinked projects including the Tsing Ma Bridge. A 2.3-km underwater tunnel linking Preveza-Aktio and the building of the Rio-Antirio Bridge across the Gulf of Corinth were notable projects in Greece. Slovenia completed 66 km of expressways, and Hungary opened a 43-km section of its east-west highway. Both contributed to the Trans European Road Network, which also included the planning for two new Danube River bridges in Bulgaria. In Japan the main highway connecting Kobe and Osaka was reopened in September, 20 months after an elevated portion in Kobe was destroyed by an earthquake. Latin America was undergoing a collective drive toward improving its highway infrastructure. The first phase of a $3 billion 2,100-km link from So Paulo, Brazil, to Buenos Aires included the Argentine-Uruguay Bridge across the Ro de la Plata. A highway linking Santos, Brazil, to Arica, Chile, was also being planned. A private enterprise planned to invest $717 million into the 407-km Presidente Dutra highway in Brazil, and other major projects included $90 million to refurbish 9,900 km of dirt roads in Peru, $130 million for building more than 300 km of trunk road in Mexico, and the first stage of a $214 million Caracas-La Guaira highway in Venezuela. A worldwide increase in charging tolls on highways took place during the year, some of it linked to efforts to combat urban pollution. Tunneling was assisting this process of improving the quality of urban life, and The Netherlands introduced a park-and-ride scheme alongside the A2 national highway at Sittard to induce car passengers to switch to intercity rail services to Utrecht and The Hague. SHIPPING AND PORTS According to figures released by Lloyd's Register of Shipping, the world fleet in 1995 increased by 14.8 million gt (gross tons) to a new high of 490.7 million gt. The bulk carrier fleet increased by 6.4 million gt to 145.5 million gt, the largest increase in 10 years. The general cargo and container fleet expanded by 4.9 million gt to 123.8 million gt, mainly owing to completions of large containerships. In the tanker fleet, however, for the first time since 1987, there was a decrease of one million to 143.5 million gt. The high level of vessel usage in some sectors during the year affected the level of scrapping, which decreased for all types of ships by 28% to 7.5 million gt. Vessels in layup continued to decrease, by 7% in number and 15% in tonnage. In regard to maritime trade, the Baltic Freight Index at the end of September 1996 fell below 1,000 for the first time in nine years. The first significant victim of the falling market was Maritime and Trading Asia, which went out of business at the end of May. By the end of October, however, the index had recovered to 1,311. The 1989 International Convention on Salvage came into force on July 14. The new convention provided for an enhanced salvage award, taking into account the skill and efforts of the salvors in preventing or minimizing damage to the environment. It further introduced a "special compensation" to be paid to salvors who had failed to earn a reward in the normal way (that is, by salvaging the ship and cargo). On July 27 the International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) celebrated 100 years of effort to improve the working conditions of transport workers worldwide. The most important maritime issue for the ITF, however, continued to be its campaign against flags of convenience, the practice of registering merchant ships under a foreign flag in order to profit from less-restrictive regulations. In the continuing drive to outlaw substandard ships, the U.S. Coast Guard added Algerian and Kuwaiti vessels to a blacklist of 24 countries that it believed did not meet international standards. Among important port initiatives, 17 Japanese companies expressed interest in developing the Russian Pacific port of Zarubino to establish a foothold for trade between Japan and Central Asian countries. The European Union (EU) planned to help Panama develop areas of the former Canal Zone when it reverted to Panamanian control. The EU was to take part in the conference on the future of the canal in 1997 and would draft a study on the environmental impact of widening it. In April 1996 Greek shipping mogul Stavros Niarchos, a pioneer of the supertanker, died at age 86. (See OBITUARIES.) (EDWARD CROWLEY) URBAN MASS TRANSIT Almost without exception in 1996, in both developed and less-developed countries, city governments were pinning their hopes on public transportation as the backbone of urban regeneration, solving congestion problems and addressing issues of environmental degradation. Privatization was becoming increasingly important in this effort. In France 70% of all urban transit networks had private participation. Italy was supporting a similar extensive program, and European Union funds were helping Lisbon and Oporto, Port. In the U.S., federal funding was recognized as a vital element for new systems. During 1996 new subway lines and systems were opened in Bilbao, Spain; Madras, India; Naples; Oslo; Taipei, Taiwan; and Tokyo. Extensions to existing lines were introduced in Atlanta, Ga.; Berlin; Cairo; Lyon, Fr.; Madrid; San Diego, Calif.; San Francisco; and Los Angeles. Agreements on construction of new subways were reported from Prague; Surabaya, Indon.; Shanghai; and Istanbul, while projects to expand existing networks were taking shape in Hong Kong, Boston, Singapore, and New York City. Amsterdam sought public approval by referendum for its subway extension, following in the footsteps of Zrich, Switz., the European city most oriented toward public transportation. A similar buoyant situation existed for light rail and streetcar systems. New systems opened in Oberhausen, Ger.; Calgary, Alta.; Cleveland, Ohio; Dallas, Texas; and Lucerne, Switz. An automated system was developed in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Construction was under way in an equally impressive list of cities, including Karachi, Pak., and Singapore. Links to airports were being made in Hong Kong, Manila, New York City, and Sydney, Australia. Technological developments included driverless subway systems (in France), smart cards for fare collection, and passenger advisory systems in stations. People-mover systems were being used as feeder links in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, and Moscow was examining a monorail system to augment the services of its subway lines. (JOHN H. EARP) See also Architecture and Civil Engineering; Business and Industry Review: Aerospace; Automobiles; Energy; The Environment. This article updates transportation, history of. World Affairs The most striking, and potentially the most dangerous, development during 1996 was the resurgence of tensions and armed conflicts in the Middle East that had been believed contained, though not solved. While these conflicts remained localized, there was always the danger that regional disputes of this kind could develop into full-scale international wars. In the United States the administration of Pres. George Bush was belatedly criticized for not having pursued the Persian Gulf War, against Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein, to the end. Hussein continued to challenge the terms of the armistice, particularly with regard to inspection and disarmament. He had support from nations--including Russia, Japan, and some European countries--that wanted to gain reentrance to the Iraqi market. Hussein also flaunted the U.S.-controlled no-fly zone established to protect Kurdish refugees. On two occasions U.S. forces bombed Iraqi military installations. These strikes were largely symbolic, however, and did not do significant harm or deter Hussein from further military action, as was demonstrated by Iraq's intervention in the struggle between rival Kurdish groups when fighting in the Kurdistan region again flared up during the summer. With the help of Iraqi army units, forces of the Kurdistan Democratic Party took the offensive and seized Sulaymania, the second largest city of the area. In October units of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan), which were supported by Iran and, apparently, by Iranian troops, started a counteroffensive and retook Sulaymania. Fighting continued, but during September--following U.S. mediation--peace talks began. There was the danger that Turkey, which had experienced a Kurdish insurrection in the eastern part of the country, would intervene on a massive scale. Thus, Kurdistan presented a prime example of how a minor regional conflict contained the seeds of a bigger conflict. While neither Turkey, Iran, nor Iraq had the desire to become too deeply involved in the struggle for Kurdistan, there was the danger that events would get out of hand. Turkey, a member of NATO for decades, distanced itself from its traditional Western partners during the year and followed a pro-Islamic foreign policy under Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. (See BIOGRAPHIES.) Erbakan's attempts to establish closer ties with Islamic nations were, however, only partly successful. The other major Middle Eastern conflict to resurface was that between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. The murder of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by a Jewish nationalist fanatic in October 1995 was followed in February and March 1996 by a series of suicide bomb attacks carried out by members of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. This in turn contributed to the defeat of the Labor Party under Rabin's successor, Shimon Peres, and the victory of the right-wing Likud headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. (See BIOGRAPHIES.) The Likud coalition was opposed to the peace process as outlined in the Oslo agreements; negotiations with Syria came to a standstill, and no significant progress was achieved in the talks with the Palestinians beyond what had already been agreed upon by the previous government. Following the opening of a tunnel in the Old City of Jerusalem, there were bloody clashes between Palestinian protesters and Israeli security forces. This caused a further deterioration in the relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours. Militant Islamism played a central role in other world conflicts. In the civil war in Afghanistan, the Taliban, a fundamentalist group supported by Pakistan, controlled more than half of the country, including the capital, Kabul, by the end of the year. Islamism (and local nationalism) played an important role in the conflict with Chechnya that had bedeviled Russian politics for years. Dzhokhar Dudayev, the leader of the Chechens, was killed in fighting in April. (See OBITUARIES.) Later in the year Gen. Aleksandr Lebed (see BIOGRAPHIES), Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin's special adviser on security affairs, worked out an armistice with the new Chechen leaders. But in October Lebed was purged by Yeltsin (or by aides acting on behalf of the ailing Russian leader), and the future of Chechnya was again uncertain. Conflicts between nationalities persisted during the year, and the Balkans and the Middle East were turned into what they had once been--permanent zones of conflict. The bloodiest conflicts, however, surfaced in regions considered by most observers as backwaters of global politics, particularly in Africa (the war between the Hutu and the Tutsi in Rwanda and Burundi and a conflict between Rwanda and Zaire). Even the bones of contention between China and its neighbours were of little consequence in a wider perspective. A more aggressive Chinese policy brought about a confrontation with Taiwan when Beijing tried to prevent the Taiwanese elections from taking place. The conflict with Japan was about the ownership of Diaoyu Dai/Senkaku, a group of tiny unpopulated islands in the China Sea of which only a few geographers had been previously aware. Such were (and are) latent nationalist passions in this and many other parts of the world, however, that a greater conflagration could not be ruled out, however intrinsically unimportant the issue at stake. Europe was preoccupied chiefly with internal economic and social problems, above all competitiveness, unemployment, and rising social costs. There was social unrest such as had not been witnessed for years, leading, in the case of France, for example, to mass strikes and demonstrations. Certain foreign political issues did, however, continue to occupy European policy makers. Among these was the slow movement toward greater economic integration following the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. While opposition to a common currency became even more outspoken, the idea of achieving this goal by 2002 was not given up. At the same time, relations with the U.S. became more acrimonious in view of differences of opinion regarding armaments. By and large, the European countries were less concerned than the U.S. about the proliferation of the means of mass destruction. Nor was there full agreement about the future character of NATO. In June the foreign ministries of the NATO countries agreed in Berlin on the reform of the alliance and a closer relationship with the Western European Union (WEU); in practical terms this meant the return of France to NATO under conditions yet to be discussed in detail. As in past years, it was next to impossible to point to a clear trend in world politics to either the left or the right. Thus, to give but two examples, the right-of-centre Italian government was defeated in April 1996 by a left-of-centre coalition, whereas in Spain the Socialist Worker's Party, which had been in power for 14 years, lost in the general elections in March to the conservative Popular Party. In the April and May elections in India, the ruling Congress (I) Party was further weakened, and the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the strongest single party. Perhaps the most important elections were those in Russia in June and July, which Boris Yeltsin won by a fairly narrow victory over his neocommunist rival Gennady Zyuganov. (See BIOGRAPHIES.) During the past two years, Russia had grown less friendly toward the outside world, even though there were no open confrontations. Another issue that preoccupied governments was the problem of international terrorism. While terrorist activities were not on a significantly greater scale in 1996, there was a growing awareness that with each year terrorists would have easier and wider access to weapons of mass destruction and that in the future terrorist attacks could have far more devastating effects than in the past. (WALTER LAQUEUR) This article updates international relations.