YEAR IN REVIEW 1998: AGRICULTURE

Fisheries According to the latest figures released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 1995 provided yet another increase in the world catch of fish. The total of 112.9 million metric tons represented a gain of 3.3 million metric tons over 1994. (See World Fisheries Table.) The increase was due exclusively to a higher level of aquaculture production. Indeed, the FAO reported a slight fall in the total wild catch from 92.1 million metric tons in 1994 to just under 92 million in 1995. The top 20 producing countries accounted for about 80% of total world production, and the top 10 accounted for almost 70%. China again dominated the producing nations with a total output of 24.4 million metric tons of fish caught or raised. This was approximately 15.5 million metric tons ahead of the second-place nation, Peru, which recorded just over 8.9 million metric tons, a drop from 11.6 million in 1994. Of Peru's 8.9 million metric tons, only 51,508 were produced through aquaculture, whereas in China 10.8 million metric tons of the 15.5 million total were derived from aquaculture. Third-place Chile with 7.6 million metric tons, fourth-place Japan with 6.8 million, and fifth-place U.S. with 5.6 million showed decreases in catch in 1995. In contrast, sixth-place India continued to show a steady increase in production, with a rise to 4.9 million metric tons from 4.5 million in 1994. Despite a drop from 12,520,000 metric tons in 1994 to 8,640,000 in 1995, South American anchoveta (tropical anchovy) again topped the leading species caught. Alaska pollock lost the number two spot to Chilean jack mackerel, which rose from 4,260,000 metric tons to more than 4,960,000. Also increasing in quantity in 1995 were Alaska pollock, from 4,300,000 to 4,690,000 metric tons; Atlantic herring, from 1,900,000 to 2,240,000 metric tons; and skipjack tuna, from 1,490,000 to 1,560,000 metric tons. The Atlantic cod and European pilchard also registered slight increases. The Japanese pilchard catch, however, continued to decline, with just 733,000 metric tons caught in 1995, compared with as many as 3,770,000 as recently as 1991. (For Top Species Landed, see Table.) Of the total fishery production in 1995, approximately 31.5 million metric tons were used for reduction to fish meal, and the total available for human consumption was estimated at 80 million metric tons, 3.4 million more than 1994. This represented a greater increase than the estimated population growth rate for the same year and resulted in an increase in the average per capita availability of food fish to 14 kg (31 lb). Most of the production increase occurred in Asia, particularly China. The trend of growth in the value of the international trade in fish continued in 1995. In 1985 the value of international fish exports was $17 billion; five years later it had risen to $35.8 billion, and by 1995 it had reached $52 billion. The overall trend in the value of the trade, however, was one of slower growth in recent years. In 1995 Japan, with some 30% of the world's total, continued to be the largest importer of fishery products. In value terms developed countries accounted for about 85% of total fish imports. The U.S. was the world's second biggest importer of fishery products but was also the world's second biggest exporter. The European Union increased its dependence on imports for its fish supply. For many less-developed countries the fish trade represented a significant source of earnings. The increase in net receipts of foreign exchange in those countries--deducting their imports from the total value of their exports--was impressive, rising from $5.1 billion in 1985 to $16 billion in 1994; a further increase to $18 billion was recorded in 1995. During 1995 the Japanese government, with technical assistance from the FAO, convened the International Conference on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security. The conference adopted the Kyoto Declaration and Plan of Action on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security. The Kyoto Declaration was a comprehensive document that took into account previous decisions that had undermined sustainable resource use, which in turn constrained the fisheries sector's contribution to food security. Both the Kyoto Declaration and the Plan of Action were a major contribution to the 1996 FAO World Food Summit.MARTIN GILL Food Processing Consumption of fast foods and convenient meals increased considerably throughout the world in 1997. Americans and Japanese ate away from home most often. In Europe the chilled-foods sector rose more than 8% over 1996, the U.K. taking first place with a 42% share. Some 90% of Americans turned to low-fat and low-calorie foods on a regular basis. Dietary fibre was back in favour as a healthful food, but, as the term meant different things to different people, nutritionists called for a definition of it. Confusion existed on what constituted a healthful diet; research by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found that throughout the world the foods that people were advised to eat and those they actually ate were different. The fear of "mad cow" disease continued to stimulate demand for meats other than beef, especially in Europe, where more than 4% of the population had become vegetarians. Gaining in popularity in many parts of the world were exotic meats, such as kangaroo, emu, and crocodile. Consumption of nonalcoholic beverages increased worldwide, most strongly in less-developed countries. Flower-flavoured beverages found favour in Asia, especially in China. Low-calorie beverages remained a popular trend in Japan. The market for iced tea grew fastest in Asia, taking 16% of the continent's soft-drink market; 80% of that market was in Japan, Indonesia, and Taiwan. In Europe iced tea was most popular in Switzerland and Austria and least so in the U.K. Bottled water took the highest share of the soft-drink market in Europe. Clear sparkling drinks were past their peak in the U.S. but increased in popularity in Europe. Sales of alcoholic fruit drinks, known as alcopops, soared. The main markets were in Australia and the U.K., where sales rose to $375 million, but there was also much activity throughout Europe. Public concern that such beverages encouraged underage drinking caused sales bans in some British supermarket chains and the withdrawal of some brands by manufacturers and the relabeling of others. Food-borne disease increased to record levels throughout the world and remained a serious public health problem. Infected fruit juice in the U.S. hospitalized 60 people and shut down the California plant of the largest American juice processor, which had to recall juice nationwide. In the U.K. the death toll believed to result from beef infected by "mad cow" disease rose to 21, and in December the British government announced that beginning in 1998 it would ban the sale of beef on the bone. Food adulteration became more prevalent. Some unscrupulous European suppliers sent large quantities of adulterated fruit juice to the U.S. market, and a fraud involving adulterated concentrated juices was uncovered in Germany. Honey, coffee, and cheese, yogurt, and other milk products were also involved. Agriculture and Food Supplies International Issues (For Selected Indexes of World Agricultural and Food Production, seeTable 1.) World agricultural production in 1997 was 1% above the previous high recorded in 1996, according to statistics compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Crop production remained about the same as in 1996, but livestock production increased nearly 2%. Food products accounted for the increase in agricultural output; production of nonfood agricultural products such as fibres and industrial products remained the same as in 1996. The increase in food production in 1997 kept pace with world population growth. Since 1990, world agricultural production per capita had increased 4%. Farmers in industrial countries expanded their production at the modest pace of about 1% per year between 1990 and 1997. Their crop output expanded at twice the rate of livestock production. Farm production of fibres, industrial products, and other nonfood items declined slightly from 1990. Total agricultural production in the United States grew at a vigorous rate of over 2% per year, whereas in the European Union (EU) there was no obvious trend. The growth in U.S. agricultural production was boosted in 1996 and 1997 by a change in federal farm policy that relaxed restrictions on the area planted to crops and allowed farmers more freedom in allocating their land among crops. The lack of growth in agriculture in the EU reflected an agricultural policy that gradually removed financial incentives for farmers to increase output. Since 1990, food production in less-developed African countries had been expanding about 2% per year. In 1997, however, grain production was down nearly 10% from the record 1996 harvest, which more than offset increases in production of other crops and livestock products. Growth in food production did not keep up with population growth. On average, per capita production in 1997 was down about 3% from 1990. China demonstrated amazing ability to expand agricultural production in the 1990s. At something over 3%, production expansion in 1997 was modest, relative to recent years, owing to a poor grain harvest. Between 1990 and 1997, however, total agricultural output grew well over 50%, recording a 35% increase in crop production and a 115% increase in livestock products. Per capita food production in China increased 50% during the seven years; per capita production of animal products doubled. Experts on Chinese agriculture accurately predicted China's rapid expansion of production and consumption of livestock products. They also predicted that China would not be able to expand feed production enough to meet the needs of the livestock and would have to greatly increase imports of coarse grains (corn, sorghum, oats, and barley). By year-end 1997, however, that had not happened. During the 1990s production of domestic feeds--along with the near elimination of coarse grain exports--enabled the domestic feed supply to keep pace with livestock production. Domestic production of high-protein meal, an important source of animal feed obtained from processed oilseeds, increased more than 300% between 1990 and 1997. Grain production increased about 15% from 1990, with most of that increase being used to feed livestock rather than people. In addition, inventories of grain reached a record high by the end of the 1996-97 crop year. In 1997 coarse grain production fell about 4%, but feed requirements were expected to be maintained through the 1997-98 feeding year by drawing down year-end stocks by about 50%. The countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics presented an entirely different picture of agricultural well-being. Production from their farms peaked in 1990. During the following years of political and economic restructuring, agricultural output in those countries declined by more than one-fourth. Crop production fell 18%, owing primarily to lower crop yields, and livestock products were down 34%. The hardest-hit countries--Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia--experienced declines in agricultural production of between 40% and 50%. In 1997, however, there were signs that the decline had hit bottom. A large increase in cereal production, due to higher yields, offset small declines in production of other crops and livestock. Food Emergencies. A study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Economic Research Service showed that 9 million-11 million tons of food aid in the form of cereals were estimated to be needed during the 1996-97 crop year to raise food consumption in hard-hit less-developed countries to target levels. The target was the average of their food consumption in the previous five years--a figure that was still far short of their minimal nutritional needs. Food needs in those countries were less than in previous years because of their improved harvests and increased commercial food purchases. The FAO reported that aid shipments of cereals by donors, principally the U.S. and the EU, during the 1996-97 reporting year totaled slightly under five million tons--which was far short of food-aid needs. (See Table II.) In general, food production in 1997 continued to improve in countries defined by the FAO as "low-income food-deficit," increasing 2% over 1996. Food emergencies continued to exist, however. The FAO identified food emergencies in 31 countries in 1997, up from 25 the previous year. Most were in Africa. Even so, the African situation eased somewhat in 1997. The FAO estimated that food production in the continent declined slightly in 1997 from the record-high level of the previous year, and overall there was somewhat less civil strife. Emergencies did, however, exist. The FAO reported that Ethiopia and Uganda suffered crop failures and food shortages as a result of adverse weather and civil disorder. Food production was also seriously reduced in Somalia, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Senegal, Cape Verde, and Malawi. The ravages of war continued to cut food production in The Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, but some recovery was evident in 1997 in the latter two countries. Food emergencies also continued in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Civil strife in the Republic of Congo seriously disrupted food production and distribution in 1997. The food crisis continued in North Korea during the year. A typhoon and severe drought in 1997 followed two years of destructive flooding of farmland in the nation. The disruptions of the Persian Gulf War and the resulting trade embargo continued to greatly restrict food supplies to Iraq. As a consequence, malnutrition was widespread. The UN-brokered food-for-oil trade agreement eased the food situation somewhat in 1997, but malnutrition persisted. The FAO reported that Mongolia continued to have food shortages. Papua New Guinea and Haiti suffered from very poor harvests due to prolonged droughts. In addition, four of the former Soviet republics--Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Tajikistan--suffered food shortages as a result of poor weather and the disruptions of the transition to new civil and economic conditions.