STRATEGY IN THE NUCLEAR AGE

Strategy in the nuclear age Strategic thinking after World War II, at least with regard to conflict between the great powers, was dominated by two related developments. The first was nuclear weapons, which raised the prospect of war as the ultimate catastrophe. This led to a shift of focus in strategic thinking toward the deterrence of war rather than the waging and winning of war. The second development was a decades-long continuity in the EastWest conflict, with two alliances each dominated by a superpowerthe North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by the United States and the Warsaw Pact by the Soviet Union. Although attempts to reproduce these alliances in continents other than Europe met with scant success, their stability within Europe meant that they were virtually taken for granted. Therefore, there was less postwar interest in the issues of alliance formation and disintegration, which had preoccupied earlier generations of strategists. The atomic bomb and American strategic thought First atomic bomb test, Alamogordo, N.M., July 16, 1945 The first successful test of the atomic bomb took place in New Mexico in July 1945 (see photograph), as the leaders of Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States met at the Potsdam Conference to discuss the shape of the postwar world. This context coloured the early American appreciation of the potential foreign-policy role of the new weapons, with the result that nuclear strategy thereafter became bound up with the twists and turns of the Cold War between East and West. However, the decision actually to use the bomb against Japan reflected the more immediate urge to end the war as soon as possible and certainly before it became necessary to mount an invasion of the mainland. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 was a means of shocking Japan into surrender. The choice of civilian rather than purely military targets, and the consequent immense loss of life, reflected the brutalizing experience of the massive air raids that had become commonplace during the war. Afterward it was assumed that any future atomic bombing would also be against cities. As weapons of terror, they appeared to have brought 20th-century trends in warfare to their logical conclusion. The first nuclear weapons were in the range of other munitions (the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima was equivalent to the load of some 200 B-29 bombers); also, at least initially, the weapons were scarce. The key development introduced by atomic bombs was less in the scale of their destructive power than in their efficiency. By the start of the 1950s, though, this situation had been transformed by two related developments. The first was the breaking of the U.S. monopoly by the Soviet Union, which conducted its first atomic bomb test in August 1949. Once two could play the nuclear game, the rules had to be changed. Anyone who thought of initiating nuclear war would henceforth need to consider the possibility of retaliation. The second development followed from the first. In an effort to extend its effective nuclear superiority, the United States produced thermonuclear bombs, based on the principles of nuclear fusion rather than fission, upon which the atomic bombs were based. This made possible weapons with no obvious limits to their destructive potential. Opposition to this development by influential nuclear scientists, such as Robert Oppenheimer, was disregarded by President Harry S. Truman on the grounds that the Soviet Union would not suffer from any comparable moral inhibitions. This move was not matched by a pronounced nuclear bias in U.S. strategy. The weapons were still scarce, and it seemed only a matter of time before whatever advantages accruing to the United States through its lead would be neutralized as the Soviet Union caught up. The Truman administration assumed that the introduction of thermonuclear weapons would extend the time available to the United States and its allies (including NATO) to build up conventional forces to match those of the Soviet Union and its satellites. A series of events, from the Berlin blockade of 1948 to the Korean War of 195053, had convinced the United States that the communists were prepared to use military means to pursue their political ambitions and that this could be countered only by a major program of Western rearmament.